Original video in Chinese.
Key Takeaway
- The physical world has stopped progressing: since the 1970s, human civilization’s progress in the physical world—energy, space, nuclear power, supersonic flight, and so on—has completely stopped growing exponentially, rather than merely slowing down. The per-capita energy consumption curve has changed from exponential growth to a flat line, causing “the pie to stop growing” and sending the world into an era of zero-sum internal consumption.
- The root cause: humanity got timid: on the one hand, software startups have lower barriers and iterate faster, so the best talent all went to write code; on the other hand, fear of physical power, especially nuclear power, has led to strict regulation and active retreat. The prosperity of the bit world has obscured the stagnation of the physical world.
- The way out: we have to choose again: individuals need to shift from “consumers” to “builders” and turn their attention to the revival of the physical world—fusion, reusable rockets, hard tech. Every decision to learn, support, or pay attention is a vote—either continue the internal consumption, or drive the next round of exponential growth.
Have you ever felt that, after working hard for so many years, it seems like you’ve just been treading water?
Actually, that’s not your problem. It’s the entire civilization that’s gotten stuck.
Our generation has collectively fallen into a zero-sum game. This didn’t just happen in recent years; it started in the 1970s.
Because human civilization’s progress in the physical world stopped in the 1970s.
Notice: not slowed down, stopped.
Why does progress in the physical world matter?
Because it is directly related to how much energy, space, and material resources we can use.
No matter how amazing phones and computers are, they only let you use time more efficiently; they can’t give you more energy, more land, or more lifespan.
As I said in the Knowledge Planet: the internet and software are, in essence, horizontal progress. They can’t create entirely new physical possibilities. Progress in the physical world is the real zero to one, because it changes the physical constraints themselves.
So when the physical world no longer provides the dividend of “the pie getting bigger,” everyone can only fight for position, status, and voice within the existing pie. That’s why identity politics, cancel culture, and internal consumption have become more and more severe on a global scale—because there’s no upward path, so everyone can only compete horizontally.
This view that “human civilization stopped progressing in the physical world” wasn’t said by me; it was said by Peter Thiel—the most famous venture capitalist in Silicon Valley. He’s Musk’s big brother, super rich and also full of ideas.
He really isn’t exaggerating. I specifically looked it up:
In commercial aviation, after Concorde was retired, there has been no successor.
In space exploration, after Apollo moon landings, there were no long-distance crewed missions for 50 years.
In nuclear power, nuclear’s share of global electricity has kept declining.
This is not a coincidence; it is a systemic ebb.
If you still think these are just isolated cases, then look at the energy consumption curve and you’ll understand.
After the steam engine was invented, the energy available per person to humanity grew steadily at 2% per year. That exponential curve lasted for nearly two hundred years.
However, starting in the 1970s, the per-capita energy consumption curve in the United States and even globally suddenly changed from exponential growth to a flat line.
You have to understand that energy is equivalent to the upper limit of humanity’s ability to manipulate the physical world. So this slowdown in exponential growth does indeed show that, starting in the 1970s, human civilization’s progress in the physical world stopped.
Corresponding to the halt of the physical world is our rapid development in the bit world.
Computers, the internet, mobile internet, and now AI—these have all kept advancing.
So for the past twenty-plus years, everyone has felt that everything was developing at high speed, when in fact it was just the prosperity of the bit world masking the stagnation of the physical world.
Why did this happen?
Simply put: we humans got timid.
On one hand, the incentives are uneven, so humans choose the easy direction.
The big projects of the physical world—rockets, nuclear power plants, supersonic airplanes—require people with a clear vision to push forward day after day for ten years. This takes willpower, courage, and ambition.
Software, on the other hand, can iterate quickly and fail quickly. The barrier is much lower.
Software startups gave smart people a path of less resistance and faster success. So the best talent all went to write code, and nobody went to build rockets.
On the other hand, there is active retreat: humans are afraid of physical power.
After the atomic bomb appeared, humanity realized that progress in the physical world also came with the possibility of destruction. Fear of physical power made us begin to retreat. For example, regulation got stricter.
The physical world is tightly controlled.
Nuclear power is the most extreme case. In the United States, from the time a new nuclear plant is proposed to the time it is connected to the grid, it takes an average of 10 to 20 years.
By contrast, the bit world is almost entirely unregulated. Software companies don’t need to go through all kinds of assessments, certifications, and approvals. Once the code is written, it can go live.
Look, this is a collective choice: we are afraid that continuing to push forward will bring greater risk, so we would rather stay where we are and rely on internal consumption to maintain a surface-level stability.
We shout “the stars and the sea” with our mouths, but in actual action, we don’t dare keep breaking physical constraints.
The feeling individuals have that “life is getting harder and harder” is structural. This is not your fault; don’t blame yourself.
But stagnation can be broken.
If we once again turn our attention to the physical world, support fusion, support reusable rockets, support real hard tech, then the next wave of exponential growth can completely arrive again.
And the choices we make now—what we learn, what we support, what we pay attention to—are all votes.
If you had to choose, would you vote for the internal consumption of the bit world, or for the revival of the physical world?
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