Suppose there are two strategies:
Strategy A: a 90% chance of making 1 yuan, a 10% chance of losing 5 yuan. The win rate is very high, but the expected return is only 0.4 yuan.
Strategy B: a 90% chance of losing 1 yuan, a 10% chance of making 20 yuan. The win rate is low, but the expected return is 1.1 yuan.
People naturally prefer A because it keeps giving the feedback of “I did the right thing”;
but fields like startups, content, and investing are much closer to B: most attempts produce nothing, and a tiny number of projects contribute the vast majority of the returns.
So winners are not the ones who fail less, but those for whom: a single failure has limited downside; they can keep trying; the upside of success has no obvious ceiling; one success is enough to cover many failures.